"Oft expectation fails": a time-series analysis of construction starts in the London office market

Expectations of future market conditions are generally acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. This empirical study of the Central London office market from 1987 to 2009 tests for evidence of adaptive and naive expectations. Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, we find evidence of adaptive and naïve, rather than rational expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developers’ decisions are explained to a large extent by contemporaneous and past conditions in both London submarkets. The corollary of this finding is that developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of unexpected exogenous shocks.

Nitrogen processes in aquatic ecosystems

Executive summary Nature of the problem (science/management/policy) • Freshwater ecosystems play a key role in the European nitrogen (N) cycle, both as a reactive agent that transfers, stores and processes N loadings from the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, and as a natural environment severely impacted by the increase of these loadings. Approaches • This chapter is a review of major processes and factors controlling N transport and transformations for running waters, standing waters, groundwaters and riparian wetlands. Key findings/state of knowledge • The major factor controlling N processes in freshwater ecosystems is the residence time of water, which varies widely both in space and in time, and which is sensitive to changes in climate, land use and management. • The effects of increased N loadings to European freshwaters include acidification in semi-natural environments, and eutrophication in more disturbed ecosystems, with associated loss of biodiversity in both cases. • An important part of the nitrogen transferred by surface waters is in the form of organic N, as dissolved organic N (DON) and particulate organic N (PON). This part is dominant in semi-natural catchments throughout Europe and remains a significant component of the total N load even in nitrate enriched rivers. • In eutrophicated standing freshwaters N can be a factor limiting or co-limiting biological production, and control of both N and phosphorus (P) loading is oft en needed in impacted areas, if ecological quality is to be restored. Major uncertainties/challenges • The importance of storage and denitrifi cation in aquifers is a major uncertainty in the global N cycle, and controls in part the response of catchments to land use or management changes. In some aquifers, the increase of N concentrations will continue for decades even if efficient mitigation measures are implemented now. • Nitrate retention by riparian wetlands has oft en been highlighted. However, their use for mitigation must be treated with caution, since their effectiveness is difficult to predict, and side effects include increased DON emissions to adjacent open waters, N2O emissions to the atmosphere, and loss of biodiversity. • In fact, the character and specific spatial origins of DON are not fully understood, and similarly the quantitative importance of indirect N2O emissions from freshwater ecosystems as a result of N leaching losses from agricultural soils is still poorly known at the regional scale. • These major uncertainties remain due to the lack of adequate monitoring (all forms of N at a relevant frequency), especially – but not only – in the southern and eastern EU countries. Recommendations (research/policy) • The great variability of transfer pathways, buffering capacity and sensitivity of the catchments and of the freshwater ecosystems calls for site specific mitigation measures rather than standard ones applied at regional to national scale. • The spatial and temporal variations of the N forms, the processes controlling the transport and transformation of N within freshwaters, require further investigation if the role of N in influencing freshwater ecosystem health is to be better understood, underpinning the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive for European freshwaters.

“Ce n’est pas elle qu’on voit”: the photograph in the work of Annie Saumont

The incorporation of ekphrastic evocations of photographs into fictional works is a growing trend charted by (mostly) literary and (occasionally) art critics interested in the effect of their inclusion in a narrative. What has emerged as a veritable affinity of photography with literature has produced a fertile interdisciplinary critical discourse around areas of intersection between visual and verbal. With regard to short fiction, the photograph is often subject to investigation as analogy, the photograph and the short story being considered metonymically related with regard to form and effect. This notion of a structural equivalence between short story and photograph is one stressed by author/photographer Julio Cortàzar, concerned to highlight the quality of intensity he ascribes to both forms, which he saw as ‘cutting out a piece of reality’ in order to ‘breaking out’ into a wider one. Given Annie Saumont’s oft-cited admiration of Cortàzar’s work it is unsurprising that in her own writing – of stories themselves often classed, in their elliptical density, as verbal snapshots – she should take an interest in photographs and/or photographers. This article seeks to explore and analyse different values Saumont ascribes to what was paradoxically described by Barthes as ‘invisible’, in that what we see when viewing a photograph is, (often treacherously), ‘ pas elle qu’on voit’: never, or never solely, the actual object itself …

Rebellen, Partisanen, Guerilleros: Asymmetrische Kriege von der Antike bis heute

Wenn es um Afghanistan oder den Irak geht, ist oft die Rede von den "neuen Kriegen". Asymmetrische Kriege zwischen Aufständischen und regulären Streitkräften gibt es jedoch seit der Antike, lange bevor der Begriff "Guerilla" geprägt wurde. Solche "kleinen" Kriege folgen alten Mustern und sind oft Teile "großer" Kriege. Dabei ist die Zivilbevölkerung oft leidtragend. Schließlich werden hier auch die moralischen Dilemmata, die sich in solchen Einsätzen stellen, diskutiert.

Oi! Oi! Oi! : class locality and British punk

This article looks at the controversial music genre Oi! in relation to youth cultural identity in late 1970s’ and early 1980s’ Britain. As a form of British punk associated with skinheads, Oi! has oft-been dismissed as racist and bound up in the politics of the far right. It is argued here, however, that such a reading is too simplistic and ignores the more complex politics contained both within Oi! and the various youth cultural currents that revolved around the term ‘punk’ at this time. Taking as its starting point the Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies’ conception of youth culture as a site of potential ‘resistance’, the article explores the substance and motifs of Oi!’s protest to locate its actual and perceived meaning within a far wider political and socio-economic context. More broadly, it seeks to demonstrate the value of historians examining youth culture as a formative and contested socio-cultural space within which young people discover, comprehend, and express their desires, opinions, and disaffections.